Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:3series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Execrationwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Batridersignature
Jaunuel · 21 game
Tinysignature
Mac · 21 game
Earthshaker
Mac · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 19 games
Lion
Tims · 19 games
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 16 games
Execration
Terrorbladesignature
Akashi · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 11 games
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
519 picks · 594 bans
Jakiro
475 picks · 436 bans
Ringmaster
469 picks · 237 bans
Terrorblade
370 picks · 764 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 509 bans
Ancient Apparition
337 picks · 780 bans
Tusk
323 picks · 291 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 94 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total73% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:20
BOOM Esports 62%Execration 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaArmel
GyrocopterPalos
TinyJaCkky
UndyingTino-
PangolierJabz
Dark WillowShanks
BatriderJaunuel
Oraclecml
MuertaTims
Game 2prediction correct44:18
BOOM Esports 62%Execration 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaJaCkky
Templar AssassinPalos
Storm SpiritArmel
BatriderShanks
EnigmaJabz
MarciTino-
TuskTims
Witch Doctorcml
SilencerJaunuel
Game 3prediction missed8:21
BOOM Esports 64%Execration 36%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerJaCkky
GyrocopterPalos
TinyArmel
KunkkaTino-
TerrorbladeJabz
SnapfireShanks
Naga SirenJaunuel
Oraclecml
Dark WillowTims
Game 4prediction missed13:34
BOOM Esports 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJaCkky
MorphlingPalos
TinyArmel
MagnusTino-
BristlebackJabz
BatriderShanks
Naga SirenJaunuel
Witch Doctorcml
Dark WillowTims
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 73%
Series resultExecration 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4