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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 18 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 14 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Tims · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
JaCkky · 11 games
64%

Execration

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 8 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Tino- · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
353 picks · 324 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 831 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
304 picks · 154 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
289 picks · 325 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 776 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
277 picks · 246 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
270 picks · 124 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
265 picks · 171 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total70% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
BOOM Esports 62%Execration 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJaCkky
46% · 227 games46% · 332 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSancity
56% · 200 games41% · 144 games
UndyingTino-
Undying
Bristleback
BristlebackJabz
57% · 299 games49% · 380 games
PuckBob
Puck
Chen
ChenNARMAN
67% · 144 games48% · 395 games
BatriderShanks
Batrider
Tusk
TuskJhocam
46% · 393 games39% · 12 games
Witch Doctorcml
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed16:30
BOOM Esports 61%Execration 39%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightJaCkky
46% · 317 games43% · 153 games
SvenPalos
Sven
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSancity
54% · 202 games53% · 202 games
Nature's ProphetBob
Nature's Prophet
Mars
MarsJabz
45% · 224 games59% · 248 games
MagnusTino-
Magnus
Chen
ChenNARMAN
59% · 141 game45% · 200 games
SnapfireShanks
Snapfire
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJhocam
49% · 332 games46% · 413 games
Tuskcml
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 70%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2