Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fnaticloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 28 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 22 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Rubick
Tims · 15 games
Chensignature
Skem · 12 games
Snapfire
Tims · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Skem · 12 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
365 picks · 345 bans
Tiny
333 picks · 331 bans
Mirana
267 picks · 257 bans
Rubick
266 picks · 198 bans
Crystal Maiden
200 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
184 picks · 105 bans
Pangolier
178 picks · 501 bans
Ember Spirit
175 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total68% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:33
BOOM Esports 68%Fnatic 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:01:46.
Game 2prediction missed16:34
BOOM Esports 68%Fnatic 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Fnatic in 47:14.
Game 3prediction correct31:30
BOOM Esports 68%Fnatic 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 55:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 68%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3