PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 17 games
Tiny
Tims · 16 games
Pucksignature
Armel · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 13 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 13 games
Disruptor
Jaunuel · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 12 games
InterActive Philippines
Puckoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Nishababy · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
419 picks · 386 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 195 bans
Puck
342 picks · 892 bans
Pugna
315 picks · 357 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 231 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 138 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 680 bans
Dawnbreaker
272 picks · 811 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:15
BOOM Esports 76%InterActive Philippines 24%
The model gave 76% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterJaCkky
Centaur WarrunnerKimizu
MagnusJabz
EarthshakerNishababy
LeshracSancity
TuskNARMAN
DisruptorJhocam
Game 2prediction correct24:21
BOOM Esports 77%InterActive Philippines 23%
The model gave 77% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 46:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterJaCkky
Ember SpiritNishababy
Storm SpiritSancity
Centaur WarrunnerKimizu
Monkey KingJabz
Naga SirenNARMAN
WindrangerJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 93%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2