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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kaiserloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
ILICH- · 6 games
83%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
67%

Kaiser

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Argius · 3 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Valquiria · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Argius · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
d1smar · 2 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
TaO · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Cara · 2 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 353 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 339 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
342 picks · 532 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 494 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
317 picks · 250 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
304 picks · 585 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
300 picks · 177 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
288 picks · 267 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:1
BOOM Esports 71%Kaiser 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 16:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaPakazs
51% · 118 games49% · 84 games
Queen of PainBenjimon
Queen of Pain
Doom
DoomILICH-
47% · 196 games52% · 171 game
MorphlingArgius
Morphling
Undying
UndyingPanda
52% · 135 games44% · 86 games
Centaur WarrunnerValquiria
Centaur Warrunner
54% · 108 games
Crystal MaidenCara
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct20:3
BOOM Esports 74%Kaiser 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 20:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverPakazs
42% · 39 games55% · 58 games
Naga SirenArgius
Naga Siren
Tiny
TinyILICH-
51% · 155 games42% · 98 games
Ember SpiritBenjimon
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenPanda
60% · 78 games46% · 64 games
TidehunterValquiria
Tidehunter
49% · 52 games
Crystal MaidenCara
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 86%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2