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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kukuysloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 22 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 21 game
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
45%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 17 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fbz · 15 games
67%

Kukuys

Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Armel · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jing · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jing · 4 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Yowe · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Gabbi · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 581 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
493 picks · 442 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
466 picks · 232 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
362 picks · 729 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
328 picks · 509 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
327 picks · 751 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
318 picks · 275 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:30
BOOM Esports 59%Kukuys 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:06:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
43% · 144 games49% · 321 game
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritArmel
45% · 278 games53% · 355 games
Storm SpiritYowe
Storm Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterJabz
56% · 113 games48% · 312 games
TerrorbladeForce
Terrorblade
Muerta
MuertaTims
48% · 276 games48% · 64 games
DisruptorGabbi
Disruptor
Bristleback
BristlebackJaunuel
59% · 241 game
Game 2prediction missed5:29
BOOM Esports 60%Kukuys 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Kukuys in 26:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
43% · 135 games46% · 213 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJabz
56% · 150 games50% · 96 games
InvokerYowe
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritArmel
48% · 214 games58% · 171 game
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Death Prophet
Death ProphetJaunuel
54% · 23 games51% · 124 games
Ancient ApparitionGabbi
Ancient Apparition
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTims
45% · 82 games
Game 3prediction correct18:5
BOOM Esports 61%Kukuys 39%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 25:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenJaCkky
51% · 134 games56% · 119 games
AlchemistNatsumi
Alchemist
Puck
PuckArmel
47% · 134 games54% · 212 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Enigma
EnigmaJabz
52% · 86 games49% · 92 games
Void SpiritYowe
Void Spirit
Undying
UndyingJaunuel
48% · 32 games47% · 100 games
Shadow ShamanGabbi
Shadow Shaman
Muerta
MuertaTims
45% · 137 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 68%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3