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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Leviatanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 11 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Pakazs · 8 games
63%

Leviatan

Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Sammyboy · 2 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
kpii · 1 game
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stojkov · 1 game
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Stojkov · 1 game
100%
Razor
Razoroften banned
kpii · 1 game
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 714 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
414 picks · 667 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
412 picks · 328 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 359 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 508 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 869 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
371 picks · 166 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
366 picks · 174 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Leviatan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:1
BOOM Esports 64%Leviatan 36%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 20:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPakazs
51% · 69 games42% · 42 games
MuertaSammyboy
Muerta
Kunkka
KunkkaILICH-
51% · 143 games50% · 86 games
Templar AssassinStojkov
Templar Assassin
Chen
ChenPanda
51% · 90 games50% · 73 games
Magnuskpii
Magnus
51% · 101 game
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed10:29
BOOM Esports 63%Leviatan 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Leviatan in 22:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPakazs
61% · 61 game45% · 56 games
BloodseekerSammyboy
Bloodseeker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastILICH-
53% · 146 games46% · 58 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Phoenix
PhoenixPanda
39% · 92 games54% · 69 games
Death Prophetkpii
Death Prophet
53% · 116 games
ClockwerkTaiga
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed34:16
BOOM Esports 58%Leviatan 42%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Leviatan in 44:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorPakazs
45% · 87 games52% · 96 games
Faceless VoidSammyboy
Faceless Void
Doom
DoomILICH-
53% · 208 games48% · 64 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Tusk
TuskPanda
54% · 156 games44% · 79 games
Death Prophetkpii
Death Prophet
52% · 212 games
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3