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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Leviatanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 24 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 18 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 18 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 15 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Pakazs · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
29%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
54%

Leviatan

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Xepher · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
kpii · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 4 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 3 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 224 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 724 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 628 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 761 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 161 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1042 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 747 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Leviatan
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
BOOM Esports 64%Leviatan 36%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
50% · 156 games50% · 24 games
PudgeMnz
Pudge
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
50% · 101 game48% · 122 games
Razorkpii
Razor
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSacred
62% · 86 games43% · 112 games
Dragon KnightStojkov
Dragon Knight
Venomancer
VenomancerPanda
52% · 37 games48% · 122 games
Spirit BreakerXepher
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct51:27
BOOM Esports 61%Leviatan 39%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 50:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusDarkMago
49% · 64 games43% · 3 games
Shadow FiendMnz
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
50% · 65 games55% · 74 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSacred
46% · 44 games48% · 74 games
Primal Beastkpii
Primal Beast
Venomancer
VenomancerPanda
56% · 24 games48% · 46 games
Spirit BreakerXepher
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 74%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2