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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Midas Clubloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 11 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 10 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Pakazs · 9 games
56%

Midas Club

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Wij · 10 games
60%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Wij · 4 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
4dr · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Costabile · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 4 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
464 picks · 743 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
432 picks · 693 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
428 picks · 344 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 547 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
415 picks · 896 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
396 picks · 176 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 190 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:15
BOOM Esports 62%Midas Club 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPakazs
45% · 115 games59% · 66 games
Wraith KingCostabile
Wraith King
Doom
DoomILICH-
51% · 187 games37% · 34 games
Zeus4dr
Zeus
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
48% · 108 games47% · 144 games
Dragon KnightFCR
Dragon Knight
57% · 62 games
ChenHyko
Chen
56% · 104 games
GyrocopterWij
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct37:20
BOOM Esports 63%Midas Club 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaPakazs
49% · 102 games47% · 66 games
LunaCostabile
Luna
Tiny
TinyILICH-
43% · 158 games47% · 72 games
Anti-MageFCR
Anti-Mage
Techies
TechiesPanda
47% · 188 games66% · 86 games
Leshrac4dr
Leshrac
59% · 62 games
ChenHyko
Chen
52% · 162 games
DisruptorWij
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 75%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2