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FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
57%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 15 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Pakazs · 13 games
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 29 games
66%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 27 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 26 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 26 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 21 game
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
463 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 635 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 365 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
393 picks · 697 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
390 picks · 561 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
366 picks · 157 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 759 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
327 picks · 926 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:28
BOOM Esports 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusDarkMago
44% · 34 games43% · 20 games
Chaos KnightUlnit
Chaos Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
57% · 64 games50% · 49 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSacred
52% · 15 games48% · 115 games
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
56% · 135 games41% · 9 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
42% · 55 games
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct26:22
BOOM Esports 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPakazs
53% · 101 game53% · 85 games
Naga SirenUlnit
Naga Siren
Zeus
ZeusDarkMago
39% · 69 games57% · 46 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaSacred
54% · 71 game48% · 157 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
47% · 169 games55% · 31 game
Venomancerbengan
Venomancer
51% · 91 game
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed8:21
BOOM Esports 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyPakazs
52% · 186 games53% · 57 games
JuggernautUlnit
Juggernaut
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSacred
57% · 41 game44% · 67 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
50% · 205 games50% · 52 games
UnderlordForce
Underlord
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
48% · 188 games50% · 236 games
Shadow DemonNARMAN
Shadow Demon
49% · 208 games
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 63%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3