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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 24 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 22 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 17 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Tims · 15 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%

Nigma Galaxy

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SumaiL · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
36%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
82%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
56%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 9 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
735 picks · 552 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
520 picks · 1039 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
453 picks · 588 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
368 picks · 197 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 391 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
320 picks · 365 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
315 picks · 622 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:46
BOOM Esports 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 49:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightYopaj
53% · 137 games51% · 144 games
BloodseekerDreamocel
Bloodseeker
Weaver
WeaverJaCkky
58% · 184 games39% · 143 games
DawnbreakerSumaiL
Dawnbreaker
Doom
DoomFbz
53% · 82 games43% · 98 games
Night StalkerMinD_ContRoL
Night Stalker
Rubick
RubickTims
47% · 92 games58% · 95 games
Earth SpiritGH
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
47% · 151 game50% · 166 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed30:44
BOOM Esports 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusYopaj
35% · 48 games50% · 178 games
TerrorbladeDreamocel
Terrorblade
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidJaCkky
48% · 93 games52% · 195 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFbz
55% · 243 games57% · 43 games
PudgeMinD_ContRoL
Pudge
Snapfire
SnapfireSkem
44% · 282 games54% · 210 games
IoGH
Io
Tusk
TuskTims
49% · 77 games55% · 117 games
LionKuroKy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 73%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2