?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 15 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Khezcute · 13 games
46%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hyde · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 9 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 8 games
63%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
82%
Puck
Pucksignature
AlaCrity · 11 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
78%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
25%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 8 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
343 · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
463 picks · 191 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 586 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 880 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 244 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 435 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 403 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:40
BOOM Esports 45%Nigma Galaxy SEA 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 52:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiMikoto
44% · 21 game55% · 73 games
LeshracinYourdreaM
Leshrac
Spectre
SpectreDreamocel
47% · 61 game62% · 41 game
DoomAlaCrity
Doom
Lion
LionHyde
44% · 135 games62% · 13 games
NecrophosMeracle
Necrophos
Undying
UndyingKhezcute
51% · 38 games44% · 93 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
55% · 35 games
Shadow DemonPoloson
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed32:31
BOOM Esports 46%Nigma Galaxy SEA 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 59:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDreamocel
56% · 107 games50% · 283 games
PuckAlaCrity
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
49% · 131 game57% · 57 games
LifestealerinYourdreaM
Lifestealer
Lion
LionHyde
50% · 299 games46% · 122 games
Dragon KnightMeracle
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixKhezcute
50% · 238 games41% · 175 games
GrimstrokePoloson
Grimstroke
52% · 138 games
MiranaJhocam
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed37:17
BOOM Esports 46%Nigma Galaxy SEA 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 50:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackDreamocel
49% · 35 games45% · 34 games
SpectreinYourdreaM
Spectre
Doom
DoomMikoto
61% · 70 games40% · 51 game
Dark SeerMeracle
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixHyde
58% · 140 games41% · 72 games
LinaAlaCrity
Lina
Enchantress
EnchantressKhezcute
49% · 118 games51% · 147 games
LionJhocam
Lion
47% · 59 games
Winter WyvernPoloson
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 55%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3