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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 19 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
93%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 13 games
85%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
82%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%

Omega Esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Sam_H · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sam_H · 7 games
29%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 7 games
29%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Mac · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
cml · 6 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 6 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Sam_H · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
348 picks · 177 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
285 picks · 103 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
267 picks · 406 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
260 picks · 354 bans
50%
Lina
Lina
258 picks · 518 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
236 picks · 329 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
227 picks · 236 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 469 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 19%
Hero pool strength60% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total88% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:4
BOOM Esports 88%Omega Esports 12%
The model gave 88% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 22:31.
Game 2prediction correct30:21
BOOM Esports 88%Omega Esports 12%
The model gave 88% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 88%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2