Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
O+Orrai + 4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 24 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 17 games
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 15 games
Gyrocopter
Pakazs · 14 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
Orrai + 4
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SmAsH · 2 games
Dazzleoften banned
TaiLung · 2 games
Axeoften banned
SmAsH · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
SmAsH · 1 game
Disruptoroften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
450 picks · 707 bans
Centaur Warrunner
436 picks · 616 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 396 bans
Batrider
409 picks · 755 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1043 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Orrai + 4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:17
BOOM Esports 74%Orrai + 4 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaPakazs
ZeusTaiLung
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Primal BeastSmAsH
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
ClockwerkYadomi
VenomancerPanda
Game 2prediction correct51:21
BOOM Esports 71%Orrai + 4 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 53:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingPakazs
ZeusTaiLung
MarsDarkMago
UnderlordSmAsH
Legion CommanderSacred
VenomancerYadomi
TechiesPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 88%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2