PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 11 games
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 11 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Pakazs · 8 games
Pacific esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
423 picks · 691 bans
Mars
401 picks · 648 bans
Techies
398 picks · 324 bans
Lion
395 picks · 361 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 473 bans
Batrider
382 picks · 845 bans
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
Crystal Maiden
351 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:22
BOOM Esports 87%Pacific esports 13%
The model gave 87% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:48.
Game 2prediction correct38:23
BOOM Esports 87%Pacific esports 13%
The model gave 87% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 87%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2