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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Weaver
Weaversignature
Skem · 18 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 17 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Skem · 14 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 13 games
77%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 13 games
85%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 15 games
80%
Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 12 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 8 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
cml · 8 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
433 picks · 266 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
384 picks · 492 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 490 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
348 picks · 495 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
280 picks · 477 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
252 picks · 336 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
251 picks · 370 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
246 picks · 176 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total73% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
BOOM Esports 63%Polaris Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
40% · 130 games55% · 153 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
50% · 194 games44% · 223 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Viper
ViperFbz
44% · 79 games51% · 120 games
Sand KingForce
Sand King
Monkey King
Monkey KingTims
55% · 152 games52% · 58 games
Vengeful SpiritBoomy
Vengeful Spirit
Io
IoSkem
52% · 150 games58% · 151 game
Death Prophetcml
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction correct29:7
BOOM Esports 61%Polaris Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
44% · 144 games55% · 59 games
Anti-MageNatsumi
Anti-Mage
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
51% · 219 games50% · 217 games
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingFbz
38% · 149 games55% · 241 game
TidehunterForce
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
47% · 182 games48% · 194 games
Weavercml
Weaver
Io
IoSkem
52% · 191 game59% · 174 games
Shadow DemonBoomy
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct30:10
BOOM Esports 64%Polaris Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
48% · 199 games53% · 203 games
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckYopaj
46% · 323 games56% · 239 games
TinyMac
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFbz
54% · 236 games47% · 151 game
Sand KingForce
Sand King
Monkey King
Monkey KingTims
47% · 228 games47% · 291 game
GrimstrokeBoomy
Grimstroke
Io
IoSkem
49% · 239 games53% · 341 game
Banecml
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 73%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3