ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
South Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
South Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ArzenT · 3 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 3 games
Lion
MonHty · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
Wij · 2 games
Clockwerk
Wij · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
339 picks · 512 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 434 bans
Vengeful Spirit
286 picks · 205 bans
Lion
285 picks · 247 bans
Grimstroke
266 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 364 bans
Magnus
255 picks · 409 bans
Faceless Void
252 picks · 619 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% South Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:30
BOOM Esports 66%South Team 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaPakazs
Centaur WarrunnerArzenT
MagnusILICH-
Treant ProtectorWij
EnchantressPanda
LionMonHty
Game 2prediction correct41:14
BOOM Esports 66%South Team 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidPakazs
DawnbreakerArzenT
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
Ogre MagiWij
Nature's ProphetPanda
HoodwinkMonHty
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 81%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2