ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
T1loss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Weaversignature
Tims · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 17 games
Banesignature
Skem · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 14 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Marssignature
Fbz · 13 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 624 bans
Bane
449 picks · 288 bans
Tiny
432 picks · 487 bans
Sand King
396 picks · 525 bans
Death Prophet
359 picks · 782 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 544 bans
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 533 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength65% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total58% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
BOOM Esports 58%T1 42%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:16.
Game 2prediction missed19:36
BOOM Esports 58%T1 42%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 47:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2