Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 17 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 17 games
Weaversignature
Skem · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 16 games
Bane
Skem · 15 games
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 13 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
545 picks · 457 bans
Mars
441 picks · 686 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 542 bans
Bane
394 picks · 280 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 579 bans
Puck
351 picks · 810 bans
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 536 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 37%
Hero pool strength59% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total54% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:5
BOOM Esports 54%T1 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:39.
Game 2prediction correct
BOOM Esports 54%T1 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 54%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2