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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Weaver
Weaversignature
Skem · 17 games
82%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 16 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 15 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 15 games
80%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 13 games
62%

Talon Esports

Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 10 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Hyde · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 7 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 6 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Medusa
Medusasignature
23savage · 6 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 446 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
488 picks · 693 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
462 picks · 286 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 526 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
408 picks · 559 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 612 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
360 picks · 310 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:32
BOOM Esports 52%Talon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerJaCkky
48% · 64 games46% · 82 games
Ursa23savage
Ursa
Lycan
LycanFbz
53% · 85 games54% · 173 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Tusk
TuskYopaj
44% · 94 games49% · 67 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingTims
52% · 262 games52% · 77 games
WindrangerQ
Windranger
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSkem
47% · 268 games53% · 374 games
BaneHyde
Bane
Game 2prediction correct44:20
BOOM Esports 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 57:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorJaCkky
50% · 142 games56% · 208 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Kunkka
KunkkaYopaj
50% · 152 games50% · 67 games
Nature's Prophetkpii
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFbz
44% · 134 games45% · 221 game
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
49% · 77 games54% · 81 game
WindrangerQ
Windranger
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
53% · 85 games48% · 13 games
MarciHyde
Marci
Game 3prediction missed35:41
BOOM Esports 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:01:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingJaCkky
53% · 263 games47% · 65 games
Slark23savage
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
56% · 279 games43% · 120 games
BatriderMikoto
Batrider
Tidehunter
TidehunterFbz
51% · 263 games43% · 166 games
EnchantressQ
Enchantress
Marci
MarciTims
50% · 12 games49% · 590 games
Marskpii
Mars
Bane
BaneSkem
57% · 375 games48% · 251 game
HoodwinkHyde
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 58%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3