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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 20 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 19 games
74%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 18 games
78%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 17 games
82%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 17 games
41%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 14 games
71%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kuku · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 20 games
60%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 18 games
78%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Natsumi · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 366 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 549 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
367 picks · 471 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 566 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 586 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
350 picks · 384 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 371 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:33
BOOM Esports 47%Talon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 45:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
41% · 65 games52% · 144 games
LifestealerNatsumi
Lifestealer
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
50% · 382 games46% · 172 games
TerrorbladeWs
Terrorblade
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
48% · 228 games55% · 227 games
Monkey KingMikoto
Monkey King
Phoenix
PhoenixTims
54% · 285 games52% · 432 games
BatriderKuku
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJaunuel
53% · 343 games48% · 328 games
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct10:39
BOOM Esports 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistJaCkky
45% · 171 game57% · 186 games
BristlebackWs
Bristleback
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMac
44% · 103 games52% · 52 games
ViperMikoto
Viper
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
47% · 316 games57% · 232 games
Monkey KingNatsumi
Monkey King
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTims
48% · 287 games47% · 416 games
BatriderJhocam
Batrider
Lich
LichJaunuel
54% · 82 games49% · 73 games
ZeusKuku
Zeus
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 56%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2