?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 21 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Matthew · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
82%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 17 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 16 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 16 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 15 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
72%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 25 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 24 games
79%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 24 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 674 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 493 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 536 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 446 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 513 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 332 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 597 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:34
BOOM Esports 46%Team Falcons 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 54:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
46% · 228 games57% · 54 games
HuskarMalr1ne
Huskar
Magnus
MagnusFbz
56% · 130 games51% · 67 games
EarthshakerSkiter
Earthshaker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
47% · 239 games48% · 466 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
57% · 226 games48% · 374 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJaunuel
46% · 257 games49% · 119 games
ZeusCr1t-
Zeus
Game 2prediction missed34:19
BOOM Esports 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
49% · 308 games51% · 247 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
54% · 278 games51% · 522 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyMac
51% · 353 games47% · 136 games
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
Earth Spirit
Batrider
BatriderTims
48% · 379 games49% · 158 games
LinaCr1t-
Lina
Pugna
PugnaJaunuel
49% · 181 game51% · 436 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2