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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 24 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 23 games
61%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 17 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Tims · 15 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
35%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 14 games
71%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 13 games
54%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
736 picks · 556 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
522 picks · 1045 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
454 picks · 591 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
369 picks · 197 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 392 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
321 picks · 368 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
316 picks · 624 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 32%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:28
BOOM Esports 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautJaCkky
45% · 106 games46% · 64 games
AlchemistMATUMBAMAN
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
49% · 183 games57% · 260 games
PuckmiCKe
Puck
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightFbz
49% · 136 games54% · 70 games
Brewmasterzai
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickTims
46% · 135 games54% · 58 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Dazzle
DazzleSkem
48% · 72 games52% · 180 games
Death ProphetiNSaNiA
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction correct39:18
BOOM Esports 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
39% · 113 games59% · 54 games
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
Bristleback
Mars
MarsFbz
50% · 388 games57% · 269 games
PangoliermiCKe
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderYopaj
48% · 112 games55% · 264 games
Razorzai
Razor
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSkem
40% · 192 games53% · 146 games
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
Keeper of the Light
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTims
50% · 76 games52% · 148 games
Nyx AssassinBoxi
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2