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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
57%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 14 games
86%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 12 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 11 games
64%

Team Liquid

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
68%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 24 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 17 games
59%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 16 games
69%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 16 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 14 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 792 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
465 picks · 956 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 201 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 608 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
451 picks · 347 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 703 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
443 picks · 204 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
430 picks · 731 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
BOOM Esports 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePakazs
56% · 151 game48% · 108 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Dark Seer
Dark SeerILICH-
48% · 90 games48% · 48 games
Death ProphetNisha
Death Prophet
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanda
51% · 111 games56% · 8 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
46% · 62 games
IoBoxi
Io
49% · 126 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed8:26
BOOM Esports 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 18:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPakazs
42% · 71 game45% · 114 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
49% · 195 games52% · 64 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
55% · 240 games49% · 18 games
Omniknight33
Omniknight
55% · 196 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
51% · 114 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2