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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sancity · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 15 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 14 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jhocam · 13 games
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 12 games
50%

Team Nemesis

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 9 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Jing · 7 games
71%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
437 picks · 408 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
421 picks · 214 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 917 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 367 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
289 picks · 143 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 224 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 669 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 848 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 28%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:21
BOOM Esports 60%Team Nemesis 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSancity
47% · 99 games51% · 191 game
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
Centaur Warrunner
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightJaCkky
49% · 242 games42% · 83 games
Troll WarlordAkashi
Troll Warlord
Axe
AxeJabz
50% · 68 games58% · 208 games
Sand KingMac
Sand King
Tusk
TuskJhocam
49% · 277 games49% · 174 games
RingmasterJing
Ringmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireNARMAN
49% · 160 games54% · 190 games
JakiroKuku
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed
BOOM Esports 71%Team Nemesis 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Nemesis.
Game 3prediction correct
BOOM Esports 71%Team Nemesis 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3