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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team SMGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 18 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Io
Iosignature
Dreamocel · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 9 games
56%

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 15 games
53%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 13 games
77%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
69%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
92%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
AhFu · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 175 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
344 picks · 122 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
268 picks · 480 bans
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 527 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 346 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
248 picks · 414 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
241 picks · 308 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
233 picks · 325 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:43
BOOM Esports 48%Team SMG 52%
The model gave 52% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 33:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanFbz
44% · 54 games43% · 91 game
Storm SpiritMoon
Storm Spirit
Lifestealer
LifestealerPalos
47% · 50 games49% · 77 games
TinyMidOne
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderYopaj
54% · 98 games51% · 43 games
Razorkpii
Razor
Mirana
MiranaTims
58% · 117 games51% · 83 games
Keeper of the LightRoddgeee
Keeper of the Light
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSkem
42% · 14 games51% · 39 games
EarthshakerAhFu
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction missed35:13
BOOM Esports 49%Team SMG 51%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2