BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO5
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 3:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team SMGloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Lion
Hyde · 19 games
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 14 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
Iosignature
Skem · 12 games
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 10 games
Team SMG
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 17 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 16 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 14 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
350 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 107 bans
Mars
264 picks · 407 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 350 bans
Lina
257 picks · 511 bans
Luna
235 picks · 332 bans
Shadow Demon
225 picks · 238 bans
Nyx Assassin
218 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total50% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:26
BOOM Esports 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Team SMG — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterPalos
LunaMidOne
Ember SpiritYopaj
LinaMoon
Legion CommanderFbz
Shadow DemonAhFu
Monkey KingTims
Beastmasterkpii
IoSkem
BloodseekerRoddgeee
Game 2prediction correct55:33
BOOM Esports 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 55:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinPalos
MiranaMoon
KunkkaYopaj
Phantom LancerMidOne
Death ProphetFbz
Vengeful Spiritkpii
Monkey KingTims
BloodseekerRoddgeee
WeaverSkem
Nyx AssassinAhFu
Game 3prediction correct26:43
BOOM Esports 49%Team SMG 51%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 49:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerPalos
Monkey KingMidOne
SnapfireYopaj
MiranaMoon
BatriderFbz
Bloodseekerkpii
EnchantressSkem
Shadow DemonAhFu
Nyx AssassinTims
AbaddonRoddgeee
Game 4prediction correct17:35
BOOM Esports 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaPalos
Void SpiritMoon
ViperYopaj
Monkey KingMidOne
BeastmasterFbz
Brewmasterkpii
EnchantressSkem
GrimstrokeAhFu
PangolierTims
ChenRoddgeee
Game 5prediction missed32:4
BOOM Esports 49%Team SMG 51%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPalos
DoomMoon
Ember SpiritYopaj
Phantom LancerMidOne
MarsFbz
Bloodseekerkpii
MiranaSkem
EarthshakerAhFu
Monkey KingTims
WeaverRoddgeee
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 50%
Series resultBOOM Esports 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 5