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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Teklaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sancity · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 15 games
33%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 15 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jhocam · 13 games
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 12 games
50%

Tekla

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Yowe · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Abat · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
441 picks · 418 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
431 picks · 217 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
352 picks · 926 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 369 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
292 picks · 147 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
288 picks · 227 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
280 picks · 670 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
279 picks · 852 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Tekla
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
BOOM Esports 69%Tekla 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
40% · 121 game49% · 256 games
GyrocopterAbat
Gyrocopter
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSancity
51% · 63 games47% · 120 games
Void SpiritYowe
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
52% · 80 games
Snapfire
SnapfireJhocam
50% · 66 games
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNARMAN
65% · 46 games
Game 2prediction missed29:44
BOOM Esports 69%Tekla 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Tekla in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
52% · 121 game51% · 280 games
Dragon KnightAbat
Dragon Knight
Leshrac
LeshracSancity
54% · 25 games46% · 68 games
SniperYowe
Sniper
Dazzle
DazzleJabz
47% · 13 games
Tusk
TuskJhocam
50% · 129 games
Disruptor
DisruptorNARMAN
49% · 60 games
Game 3prediction correct24:16
BOOM Esports 67%Tekla 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightJaCkky
56% · 97 games44% · 61 game
BloodseekerAbat
Bloodseeker
Puck
PuckSancity
61% · 60 games50% · 412 games
Storm SpiritYowe
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierJabz
46% · 177 games
Warlock
WarlockNARMAN
52% · 84 games
Snapfire
SnapfireJhocam
46% · 55 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 83%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3