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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 11 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 10 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ws · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
67%

Thunder Awaken

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Genek · 6 games
83%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
20%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 4 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
361 picks · 308 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
328 picks · 507 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
323 picks · 301 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
269 picks · 371 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
252 picks · 457 bans
56%
Luna
Luna
248 picks · 227 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
243 picks · 160 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
242 picks · 305 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:29
BOOM Esports 57%Thunder Awaken 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 56:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPakazs
46% · 84 games53% · 64 games
Faceless VoidLumière
Faceless Void
Lone Druid
Lone DruidILICH-
50% · 52 games52% · 46 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePanda
53% · 106 games45% · 7 games
Winter WyvernOscar
Winter Wyvern
45% · 61 game
DoomGenek
Doom
53% · 64 games
EnchantressMjz
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct40:11
BOOM Esports 60%Thunder Awaken 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterILICH-
48% · 159 games48% · 74 games
LunaLumière
Luna
Slark
SlarkPakazs
63% · 118 games47% · 73 games
Dragon KnightDarkMago
Dragon Knight
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPanda
49% · 216 games44% · 85 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
48% · 99 games
GrimstrokeGenek
Grimstroke
49% · 162 games
BatriderMjz
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 66%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2