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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 18 games
61%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 12 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 12 games
92%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 11 games
27%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 10 games
40%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 35 games
86%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 24 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 21 game
86%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Whitemon · 13 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 13 games
54%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 12 games
92%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
499 picks · 783 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
457 picks · 954 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 717 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
450 picks · 352 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 596 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
443 picks · 194 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
430 picks · 203 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
418 picks · 705 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 68%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:29
BOOM Esports 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
46% · 335 games57% · 29 games
Drow RangerPure~
Drow Ranger
Magnus
MagnusILICH-
49% · 315 games53% · 108 games
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
Centaur Warrunner
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanda
56% · 20 games54% · 124 games
PugnaTopson
Pugna
45% · 192 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
51% · 217 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Game 2prediction correct9:27
BOOM Esports 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePakazs
55% · 226 games49% · 135 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierILICH-
52% · 360 games52% · 180 games
Faceless VoidTopson
Faceless Void
Techies
TechiesPanda
50% · 375 games45% · 91 game
Death ProphetTobi
Death Prophet
47% · 129 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
46% · 426 games
RubickWhitemon
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2