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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 20 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 18 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
76%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 17 games
82%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 17 games
41%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 14 games
71%

Yangon Galacticos

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 6 games
17%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
425 picks · 344 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 540 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 377 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
357 picks · 187 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
355 picks · 448 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 583 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 818 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
333 picks · 533 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total82% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:8
BOOM Esports 70%Yangon Galacticos 30%
The model gave 70% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJaCkky
51% · 35 games44% · 145 games
LinaYoung PH
Lina
Doom
DoomFbz
55% · 78 games55% · 85 games
UrsaKsh
Ursa
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMac
49% · 29 games
Batrider
BatriderTims
48% · 73 games
Lich
LichJaunuel
52% · 15 games
Game 2prediction correct39:23
BOOM Esports 71%Yangon Galacticos 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
51% · 102 games50% · 161 game
TerrorbladeKsh
Terrorblade
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
48% · 29 games52% · 247 games
Storm SpiritYoung PH
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
44% · 68 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJaunuel
48% · 111 games
Phoenix
PhoenixTims
54% · 98 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 82%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2