Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionBBOTSquadloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
WOLFwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOTSquad
Batrideroften banned
yabyoo · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
yabyoo · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
WOLF
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
773 picks · 600 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 448 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
416 picks · 977 bans
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 684 bans
Undying
399 picks · 593 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 916 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% BOTSquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% BOTSquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:16
BOTSquad 50%WOLF 50%
The model gave 50% on BOTSquad — the game was taken by WOLF in 41:37.
Game 2prediction correct33:23
BOTSquad 50%WOLF 50%
The model gave 50% on BOTSquad — the game was taken by BOTSquad in 53:49.
Game 3prediction missed34:36
BOTSquad 50%WOLF 50%
The model gave 50% on BOTSquad — the game was taken by WOLF in 45:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOTSquad · 50%
Series resultWOLF 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3