Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
11Monkeyzwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ThuG · 11 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Focus · 11 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
ThuG · 10 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 9 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
498 picks · 437 bans
Mars
463 picks · 690 bans
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 536 bans
Bane
427 picks · 288 bans
Storm Spirit
365 picks · 584 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 597 bans
Chaos Knight
336 picks · 645 bans
Keeper of the Light
335 picks · 765 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:22
Brame 70%11Monkeyz 30%
The model gave 70% on Brame — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 45:10.
Game 2prediction missed11:21
Brame 70%11Monkeyz 30%
The model gave 70% on Brame — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 29:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 70%
Series result11Monkeyz 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2