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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Allianceloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 14 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
69%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SsaSpartan · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
W1sh- · 10 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
78%

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 942 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 535 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
348 picks · 700 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 547 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
315 picks · 311 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 220 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
282 picks · 156 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 282 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:9
Brame 43%Alliance 57%
The model gave 57% on Alliance — the game was taken by Brame in 38:44.
Game 2prediction correct12:27
Brame 43%Alliance 57%
The model gave 57% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 37:27.
Game 3prediction missed21:32
Brame 43%Alliance 57%
The model gave 57% on Alliance — the game was taken by Brame in 58:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 57%
Series resultBrame 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3