Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Bramewin 1:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Creepwaveloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Grimstroke
SkyLark · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 6 games
Creepwave
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
Marssignature
ATF · 16 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
324 picks · 664 bans
Void Spirit
310 picks · 378 bans
Mars
261 picks · 456 bans
Earth Spirit
243 picks · 202 bans
Rubick
216 picks · 113 bans
Death Prophet
209 picks · 311 bans
Nyx Assassin
209 picks · 627 bans
Phoenix
209 picks · 238 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 77%
Hero pool strength59% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total66% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:18
Brame 41%Creepwave 59%
The model gave 59% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Brame in 48:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingFocus
IoCrystallis
Death ProphetW1sh-
Sand KingATF
Outworld DestroyerSkyLark
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
MiranaMiLAN
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
TuskFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 66%
Series resultBrame 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1