?
arrow_backBack to match
Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EXTREMUMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 14 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
69%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SsaSpartan · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
W1sh- · 10 games
60%

EXTREMUM

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 15 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
25%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 965 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
371 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 712 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 553 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
327 picks · 331 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
297 picks · 163 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 219 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 277 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:22
Brame 62%EXTREMUM 38%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 38:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaW1sh-
42% · 37 games58% · 79 games
Wraith KingNefrit
Wraith King
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidFocus
56% · 19 games47% · 24 games
AxeShachlo
Axe
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
57% · 86 games46% · 108 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCTOMAHEH1
57% · 6 games57% · 44 games
EnchantressG
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
37% · 107 gameslittle data
Skywrath MageChuvash
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct24:25
Brame 65%EXTREMUM 35%
The model gave 65% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 50:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingFocus
52% · 55 games43% · 10 games
Phantom LancerNefrit
Phantom Lancer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendW1sh-
36% · 7 games54% · 27 games
Storm Spiritmellojul
Storm Spirit
Omniknight
OmniknightSkyLark
little data46% · 19 games
Legion CommanderShachlo
Legion Commander
Lina
LinaSsaSpartan
57% · 16 games38% · 4 games
Skywrath MageChuvash
Skywrath Mage
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
50% · 6 games49% · 24 games
EnchantressG
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed20:51
Brame 63%EXTREMUM 37%
The model gave 63% on Brame — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 44:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerW1sh-
little data53% · 59 games
MedusaNefrit
Medusa
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFocus
41% · 80 games54% · 231 game
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckSkyLark
48% · 235 games54% · 49 games
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
51% · 40 games52% · 17 games
Treant ProtectorG
Treant Protector
Rubick
RubickCTOMAHEH1
44% · 113 games55% · 112 games
GrimstrokeChuvash
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 73%
Series resultEXTREMUM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3