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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
30%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 6 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantress
SsaSpartan · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 5 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 5 games
20%

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 7 games
71%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 7 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 6 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 6 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 6 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MISERY · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
213 picks · 457 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
188 picks · 344 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
187 picks · 252 bans
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 140 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
148 picks · 170 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
146 picks · 240 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
139 picks · 460 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
130 picks · 77 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength64% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:12
Brame 39%Hellbear Smashers 61%
The model gave 61% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Brame in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaFocus
38% · 14 games47% · 35 games
Monkey KingAce
Monkey King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
49% · 17 games57% · 27 games
Dragon KnightStormstormer
Dragon Knight
Windranger
WindrangerW1sh-
57% · 3 games53% · 16 games
PangolierMISERY
Pangolier
Puck
PuckSsaSpartan
49% · 60 games57% · 3 games
Dark WillowGilgir
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCTOMAHEH1
49% · 21 game54% · 34 games
OracletOfu
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed33:21
Brame 37%Hellbear Smashers 63%
The model gave 63% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Brame in 47:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaFocus
32% · 19 games53% · 31 game
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetW1sh-
54% · 42 games65% · 12 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Slardar
SlardarSkyLark
63% · 4 gameslittle data
RazorMISERY
Razor
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
47% · 52 games57% · 73 games
PucktOfu
Puck
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
41% · 48 games51% · 49 games
Earth SpiritGilgir
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 65%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2