?
arrow_backBack to match
Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
69%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
54%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
42%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Focus · 11 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
64%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
60%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 997 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 195 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 599 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 363 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
307 picks · 663 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
296 picks · 490 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
294 picks · 226 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
288 picks · 164 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total52% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:38
Brame 51%Hellbear Smashers 49%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 52:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFocus
50% · 51 game47% · 87 games
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Lina
Linabzm
48% · 80 games46% · 107 games
Death ProphetStormstormer
Death Prophet
Axe
AxeSkyLark
54% · 50 games43% · 3 games
NecrophosMISERY
Necrophos
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSsaSpartan
52% · 59 games49% · 68 games
TinyGilgir
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCTOMAHEH1
61% · 84 games44% · 59 games
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed19:28
Brame 51%Hellbear Smashers 49%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
54% · 50 games47% · 66 games
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Spectre
SpectreFocus
54% · 16 games50% · 10 games
Templar AssassinStormstormer
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordSkyLark
40% · 23 games53% · 20 games
DoomMISERY
Doom
Axe
AxeCTOMAHEH1
52% · 41 game43% · 44 games
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Nyx Assassin
Warlock
WarlockSsaSpartan
61% · 22 games54% · 12 games
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 52%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2