Brame vs Into The Breach — prediction DPC2—ЗЕ · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3

result vs prediction

Bramewin 2:1

series probability

63%37%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Into The Breachloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Nature's Prophetsignature

SkyLark · 19 games

63%

Weaveroften banned

CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games

56%

Lunasignature

Nefrit · 15 games

60%

Marssignature

SkyLark · 15 games

60%

Bloodseekeroften banned

Nefrit · 13 games

46%

Kunkkasignature

W1sh- · 13 games

62%

Earth Spiritsignature

CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games

67%

Spirit Breakersignature

CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games

83%

Into The Breach

Medusasignature

Charlie · 9 games

78%

Snapfiresignature

Era · 9 games

78%

Marsoften banned

Xibbe · 8 games

50%

Linasignature

Bor@nija · 7 games

71%

Shadow Demonsignature

Era · 7 games

86%

Tidehuntersignature

Xibbe · 7 games

71%

Void Spiritoften banned

Bor@nija · 7 games

57%

Lion

Era · 6 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

441 picks · 329 bans

57%

Mars

418 picks · 601 bans

50%

Queen of Pain

351 picks · 427 bans

50%

Weaver

348 picks · 782 bans

57%

Snapfire

331 picks · 182 bans

46%

Kunkka

273 picks · 454 bans

56%

Spirit Breaker

266 picks · 391 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

246 picks · 336 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%

Hero pool strength51% Brame

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total63% Brame

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct21:31

Brame 63%Into The Breach 37%

The model gave 63% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 35:32.

Game 2prediction missed17:34

Brame 63%Into The Breach 37%

The model gave 63% on Brame — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 34:02.

Game 3prediction correct11:29

Brame 63%Into The Breach 37%

The model gave 63% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 36:48.

Model check result

Model favoriteBrame · 63%

Series resultBrame 2:1

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game2 of 3