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1x Series · BO5
result vs prediction
Bramewin 3:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Into The Breachloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ThuG · 17 games
65%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
dEsire · 16 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
W1sh- · 14 games
43%
Viper
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 12 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
82%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
36%

Into The Breach

Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 17 games
82%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ari · 14 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Kidaro · 12 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Supream^ · 11 games
82%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
70%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Supream^ · 10 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
727 picks · 566 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
514 picks · 1029 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
477 picks · 626 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
438 picks · 780 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
367 picks · 411 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
342 picks · 164 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 379 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
310 picks · 595 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Into The Breach
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:14
Brame 46%Into The Breach 54%
The model gave 54% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Brame in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNande
36% · 52 games52% · 225 games
WeaverOtaker
Weaver
Lina
LinaW1sh-
44% · 290 games58% · 222 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSkyLark
49% · 350 games50% · 247 games
Queen of PainSupream^
Queen of Pain
Tiny
TinydEsire
51% · 423 games53% · 190 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSsaSpartan
46% · 137 games58% · 368 games
BaneKidaro
Bane
Game 2prediction missed52:23
Brame 46%Into The Breach 54%
The model gave 54% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Brame in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeNande
59% · 29 games57% · 65 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Windranger
WindrangerW1sh-
43% · 53 games57% · 3 games
Lone DruidOtaker
Lone Druid
Viper
ViperSkyLark
49% · 89 games47% · 101 game
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
47% · 34 games54% · 27 games
Spirit BreakerAri
Spirit Breaker
Warlock
WarlockSsaSpartan
46% · 37 games50% · 46 games
ChenKidaro
Chen
Game 3prediction missed32:23
Brame 47%Into The Breach 53%
The model gave 53% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Brame in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNande
54% · 48 games47% · 94 games
TerrorbladeOtaker
Terrorblade
Viper
ViperSkyLark
53% · 109 games42% · 75 games
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Batrider
BatriderW1sh-
50% · 99 games42% · 151 game
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Chen
ChenSsaSpartan
63% · 64 games59% · 36 games
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Crystal Maiden
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
56% · 101 game42% · 65 games
TuskAri
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 56%
Series resultBrame 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3