Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Novaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
Marsoften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Nova
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
Snapfire
so bad · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
swedenstrong · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
paradise' · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
427 picks · 270 bans
Mars
412 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
370 picks · 431 bans
Death Prophet
342 picks · 703 bans
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 453 bans
Sand King
307 picks · 412 bans
Pangolier
270 picks · 400 bans
Weaver
260 picks · 305 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:25
Brame 61%Nova 39%
The model gave 61% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaFocus
Phantom Lancerparadise'
ViperSkyLark
Puckforyou
Storm SpiritThuG
Dragon KnightBb3px
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Earth SpiritdEsire
Game 2prediction correct28:16
Brame 58%Nova 42%
The model gave 58% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 28:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageFocus
Drow Rangerparadise'
Sand KingThuG
Storm Spiritforyou
HoodwinkdEsire
Chaos KnightBb3px
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
ViperSkyLark
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 68%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2