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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
61%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
76%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nefrit · 15 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
46%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
54%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
50%

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 16 games
44%
Bane
Bane
Misha · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 12 games
58%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
bzm · 11 games
82%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 10 games
40%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Misha · 10 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
445 picks · 268 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 544 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
329 picks · 417 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
313 picks · 565 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
299 picks · 465 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
298 picks · 323 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 377 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
269 picks · 495 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total73% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:29
Brame 37%OG 63%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFocus
48% · 88 games57% · 65 games
RazorYuragi
Razor
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightThuG
51% · 185 games39% · 19 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkyLark
40% · 63 games55% · 112 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightdEsire
51% · 96 games49% · 135 games
HoodwinkTaiga
Hoodwink
Chen
ChenSsaSpartan
54% · 9 games50% · 110 games
AbaddonMisha
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct10:27
Brame 37%OG 63%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 21:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightThuG
47% · 209 games45% · 141 game
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFocus
45% · 206 games46% · 149 games
LunaYuragi
Luna
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightdEsire
60% · 111 games53% · 133 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkyLark
44% · 58 games50% · 118 games
EnchantressTaiga
Enchantress
Io
IoSsaSpartan
57% · 209 games53% · 252 games
BaneMisha
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 73%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2