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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 15 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
42%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
64%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
70%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 15 games
87%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
54%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 10 games
70%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 10 games
90%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
89%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 1014 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 595 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
358 picks · 187 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
354 picks · 363 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
325 picks · 511 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
315 picks · 688 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
257 picks · 282 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 79%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:45
Brame 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
51% · 44 games60% · 152 games
Wraith KingYatoro
Wraith King
Medusa
MedusaFocus
48% · 67 games49% · 63 games
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Invoker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSkyLark
38% · 131 game66% · 110 games
Nyx AssassinCollapse
Nyx Assassin
Mars
MarsSsaSpartan
45% · 185 games46% · 103 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Elder Titan
Elder TitanCTOMAHEH1
49% · 74 games51% · 73 games
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct13:38
Brame 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautFocus
53% · 134 games40% · 144 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Tiny
TinyW1sh-
47% · 90 games46% · 43 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Magnus
MagnusSkyLark
61% · 32 games54% · 66 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Pugna
PugnaCTOMAHEH1
51% · 15 games55% · 49 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSsaSpartan
53% · 94 games46% · 63 games
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 74%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2