Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
X3win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Marssignature
SkyLark · 13 games
Weaversignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Abaddonoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
X3
Bane
Kidaro · 1 game
Grimstroke
Kidaro · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
Rubick
Antares · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Antares · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
323 picks · 459 bans
Bane
277 picks · 207 bans
Monkey King
267 picks · 697 bans
Tidehunter
265 picks · 396 bans
Snapfire
263 picks · 147 bans
Weaver
257 picks · 555 bans
Lion
211 picks · 97 bans
Ember Spirit
209 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 33%
Hero pool strength61% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:28
Brame 60%X3 40%
The model gave 60% on Brame — the game was taken by X3 in 25:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainW1sh-
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
Phantom AssassinNefrit
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
IoSkyLark
RazorAntares
EnchantressSsaSpartan
DisruptorKidaro
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Game 2prediction missed18:35
Brame 66%X3 34%
The model gave 66% on Brame — the game was taken by X3 in 40:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerNefrit
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
BeastmasterSkyLark
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
LeshracW1sh-
RubickAntares
MiranaCTOMAHEH1
EnchantressKidaro
WeaverSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 74%
Series resultX3 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2