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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BTC Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BTC Gaming

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Prada · 3 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 3 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 3 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Mjz · 3 games
33%

Hokori

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Costabile · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Vitaly · 1 game
100%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Costabile · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
Vitaly · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 1 game
100%
Necrophos
Necrophos
Lumière · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Genek · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
637 picks · 694 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 450 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
488 picks · 398 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
412 picks · 373 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1084 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 818 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 563 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:10
BTC Gaming 38%Hokori 62%
The model gave 62% on Hokori — the game was taken by BTC Gaming in 29:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMnz
48% · 279 games49% · 406 games
TinyCostabile
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierAlone
45% · 289 games62% · 57 games
Death ProphetLumière
Death Prophet
Disruptor
DisruptorPrada
53% · 292 games46% · 360 games
MarsVitaly
Mars
Ringmaster
RingmasterMjz
49% · 305 games53% · 219 games
PhoenixGenek
Phoenix
49% · 123 games
ClockwerkGardick
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed31:34
BTC Gaming 41%Hokori 59%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by BTC Gaming in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMnz
53% · 185 games56% · 20 games
Drow RangerCostabile
Drow Ranger
Rubick
RubickAlone
46% · 90 games45% · 167 games
Queen of PainLumière
Queen of Pain
Disruptor
DisruptorPrada
48% · 323 games52% · 96 games
UndyingVitaly
Undying
Alchemist
AlchemistMjz
56% · 41 game50% · 274 games
HoodwinkGenek
Hoodwink
49% · 82 games
ClockwerkGardick
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 68%
Series resultBTC Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2