BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bullswin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDuBuloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bulls
Primal Beastoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Clockwerk
Gardick · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
MoOz · 1 game
Gyrocopter
payk · 1 game
Lion
MoOz · 1 game
Luna
payk · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MoOz · 1 game
DuBu
Bristlebackoften banned
Speeed · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
YamSun · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Speeed · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
DuBu · 3 games
Tusk
MSS · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
255 picks · 431 bans
Phoenix
227 picks · 357 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
214 picks · 284 bans
Tusk
208 picks · 193 bans
Dark Willow
207 picks · 99 bans
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
184 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Bulls
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% DuBu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:17
Bulls 48%DuBu 52%
The model gave 52% on DuBu — the game was taken by Bulls in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapayk
Keeper of the LightRCY
WindrangerVitaly
Lone DruidSpeeed
TinyMoOz
PudgeYamSun
UndyingGardick
LionMSS
54% · 39 games
Vengeful SpiritDuBu
Game 2prediction missed36:10
Bulls 48%DuBu 52%
The model gave 52% on DuBu — the game was taken by Bulls in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkpayk
JuggernautYamSun
MarsVitaly
AbaddonSpeeed
PhoenixGardick
Void SpiritRCY
Skywrath MageMoOz
WeaverMSS
48% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteDuBu · 53%
Series resultBulls 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2