Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
bumble bEE'sloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4 Zoomerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
bumble bEE's
Witch Doctor
ppd · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
dnm · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Moo · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
dnm · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Fear · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 2 games
Lion
Sneyking · 2 games
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
302 picks · 610 bans
Void Spirit
279 picks · 348 bans
Mars
239 picks · 423 bans
Earth Spirit
230 picks · 180 bans
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 372 bans
Rubick
193 picks · 104 bans
Nyx Assassin
192 picks · 599 bans
Phoenix
188 picks · 218 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:29
bumble bEE's 40%4 Zoomers 60%
The model gave 60% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 38:00.
Game 2prediction correct14:40
bumble bEE's 40%4 Zoomers 60%
The model gave 60% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 39:02.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 60%
Series result4 Zoomers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2