Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
bumble bEE'swin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5ManMidasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
bumble bEE's
Batrideroften banned
dnm · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 2 games
Witch Doctor
ppd · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Moo · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
dnm · 1 game
Jakiro
ppd · 1 game
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
178 picks · 402 bans
Mars
169 picks · 308 bans
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 126 bans
Void Spirit
155 picks · 218 bans
Phoenix
134 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
121 picks · 208 bans
Nyx Assassin
116 picks · 401 bans
Rubick
115 picks · 62 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% bumble bEE's
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
bumble bEE's 55%5ManMidas 45%
The model gave 55% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 35:02.
Game 2prediction correct37:9
bumble bEE's 55%5ManMidas 45%
The model gave 55% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 42:28.
Model check result
Model favoritebumble bEE's · 55%
Series resultbumble bEE's 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2