Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
bumble bEE'swin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
A-Teamloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
bumble bEE's
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Moo · 4 games
Witch Doctor
ppd · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
ppd · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
dnm · 3 games
Rubick
Sneyking · 3 games
A-Team
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Rikioften banned
Rises · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
337 picks · 681 bans
Void Spirit
321 picks · 395 bans
Mars
267 picks · 469 bans
Earth Spirit
249 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
222 picks · 327 bans
Rubick
221 picks · 122 bans
Nyx Assassin
213 picks · 636 bans
Keeper of the Light
212 picks · 433 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% bumble bEE's
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:24
bumble bEE's 49%A-Team 51%
The model gave 51% on A-Team — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 49:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusadnm
Wraith KingRises
PangolierMoo
BloodseekerTheBloodySky
RubickSneyking
Dragon KnightFear
Witch Doctorppd
Model check result
Model favoritebumble bEE's · 53%
Series resultbumble bEE's 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1