BTS Pro Series Season 5. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
bumble bEE'swin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
bumble bEE's
Rubick
Sneyking · 6 games
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 5 games
Witch Doctor
ppd · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
ppd · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Moo · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 3 games
The Cut
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
Axe
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Gyrocopter
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
350 picks · 734 bans
Void Spirit
328 picks · 427 bans
Mars
282 picks · 497 bans
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 217 bans
Death Prophet
241 picks · 369 bans
Rubick
234 picks · 132 bans
Keeper of the Light
221 picks · 462 bans
Nyx Assassin
217 picks · 668 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:9
bumble bEE's 44%The Cut 56%
The model gave 56% on The Cut — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 25:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracRyoya
IoScourge McDuck
MorphlingFear
Void SpiritLil_Nick
TidehunterSneyking
BloodseekerTingleK1ng
MiranaZfreeK
EnchantressMoo
Game 2prediction missed43:15
bumble bEE's 44%The Cut 56%
The model gave 56% on The Cut — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaFear
AlchemistScourge McDuck
TidehunterSneyking
BatriderLil_Nick
TinyRyoya
BeastmasterTingleK1ng
Keeper of the LightMoo
Ancient ApparitionZfreeK
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 59%
Series resultbumble bEE's 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2